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Tuesday, 15 January 2019

Parliament to vote on Brexit today

Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal with the European Union finally comes before parliament for a vote today. The deal is expected to fall short, leaving Britain with several more difficult choices, but the margin of May's defeat will be a strong influence on which way it goes.

No-one really knows what will happen, but there's some agreement on the margin-of-defeat issue.

╔══════════════════╦══════════════════════════╗
║ Margin of Defeat ║ Possible Outcomes        ║
╠══════════════════╬══════════════════════════╣
║ May wins         ║ Frankenbrexit            ║
╠══════════════════╬══════════════════════════╣
║ 50 votes or less ║ EU offers concessions    ║
║                  ║ Quick 2nd vote           ║
╠══════════════════╬══════════════════════════╣
║ 50-100 votes     ║ More negotiations        ║
║                  ║ Late 2nd vote            ║
╠══════════════════╬══════════════════════════╣
║ 100+ votes       ║ No deal Brexit           ║
║                  ║ Soft Brexit              ║
║                  ║ General election         ║
║                  ║ 2nd Referendum           ║
║                  ║ Vote of No Confidence    ║
║                  ║ Backbench rebellion      ║
║                  ║ Currency collapse        ║
║                  ║ Zombie horrorcaust       ║
║                  ║ Global Thermonuclear War ║
╚══════════════════╩══════════════════════════╝


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